Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Tier 1: The Favorites
Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr.
A wide receiver or quarterback has won Offensive Rookie of the Year each of the last six seasons. Looking at this rookie class, one quarterback and one receiver stand above the rest and seem likely to continue that trend.
Caleb Williams, the number one overall pick, is entering one of the best situations a first overall quarterback has had in years with the Chicago Bears. His supporting cast includes an elite receiver trio and a solid offensive line. He should put up big numbers in his rookie year while the Bears compete for a wild card spot. If they finish with a winning record, Williams will be a big reason and have a strong case for the award.
Harrison Jr. is looking to follow in the footsteps of Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua who each had phenomenal rookie seasons, including OROY wins for Chase and Wilson. Harrison should immediately step in as Kyler Murray’s top target in Arizona’s passing game, which could have a surprise season. Expectations are high for the Buckeye legend, but Harrison Jr. will be in position to take home hardware at the NFL honors if he can reach those heights with a 1000+ yard season.
Tier 2: Next Men Up
Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Bo Nix
It may be a surprise to see Daniels left off the first tier, but the Washington Commanders are simply one of the worst teams in football. The last player to win OROY on a team with five or fewer wins was Kyler Murray in 2019. Admittedly, Daniels and Murray have parallels as prospects and share the same play caller, Kliff Kingsbury, in their rookie seasons. Robert Griffin III electrified Washington in 2012 with his dual-threat play, leading the then-Redskins to a playoff appearance and earning OROY. Daniels will need even better stats to earn the award, as the Commanders face an uphill battle to the playoffs playing in the NFC East with Philadelphia and Dallas.
The New York Giants also have a recent OROY that Malik Nabers will draw comparisons to in Odell Beckham Jr. Like the Commanders, the Giants are unlikely to be a strong team in 2024. As a wide receiver, Nabers will receive less blame (or credit) for his team’s success than Daniels. New York went 6-10 in 2014 when Beckham Jr. earned the OROY honor. Nabers, also an LSU alum, is already the Giants’ top offensive weapon and could lead all rookies in catches this year. He will see significant volume, and could emerge as one of the best young receivers in the NFL right away, just as former Tigers like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase did.
Bo Nix already earned the starting job in Denver, and enters the league with plenty of starting experience after an accomplished career at Auburn and Oregon. He is paired with Sean Payton, a legendary offensive mind (even if his career has seen better days), and will lead a competitive Broncos team. Their road to the playoffs is tough with the back-to-back Super Bowl champs in the same division, but anticipated down years from the Chargers and Raiders creates opportunity. Bo Nix was heralded as a pro-ready prospect, and needs to be just that if Denver wants a chance at the playoffs. Mac Jones was the OROY runner-up in 2021 after leading the Patriots to a 10-7 season and wild-card appearance. A similar outcome for Nix and the Broncos will put him in contention for the award.
Tier 3: Dark Horses
Drake Maye, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman Brock Bowers
These four players all have clear paths to fantastic rookie seasons, but will not be depended on by their team’s as much as the top five names. Drake Maye was selected in the top-three for a reason, but may not start over Jacoby Brissett immediately as the Patriots play the long game at quarterback. Their offensive situation is among the league’s worst, and give Maye an uphill battle to strong stats. If he is able to shine despite the darkness around him, he could present a compelling case for the award.
Ladd McConkey and Keon Coleman are the only second round wide receivers on this list, but they could be target hogs in their debut campaigns. Both have cases already as the most talented receivers on their teams, and are playing with elite quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. Each quarterback is seeking a reliable target to assume a massive role in their offense. McConkey and Coleman could become WR1s right away and put up huge numbers, like we saw with Puka Nacua last year. Neither feels as surefire a talent as Harrison or Nabers, but their situations and skill sets present high upside as rookies.
A tight end has never won the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, but if there is any man who can change that, it is Brock Bowers. The former Georgia Bulldog was dominant in each of his three collegiate seasons, and is one of the most unique pass catchers to enter the league in recent years. He needs to have a historic rookie season to even sniff OROY, as Sam LaPorta and Kyle Pitts both had great debut years and received zero first place votes for the award. The Raiders’ offense is not the most exciting in the league, but there is room for Bowers to carve out a large role behind Davante Adams. Bowers needs at least 1000 yards (like Pitts had) AND ten touchdowns (like LaPorta had) to make a strong case for OROY, but never doubt a player this talented.
Tier 4: Longshots
Jonathon Brooks, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy
No running back has won OROY since Saquon Barkley in 2018 (Alvin Kamara also won a year earlier), and that drought will likely continue into 2025. Jonathon Brooks was the first one off the board this year, but landed with a poor offense in Carolina. Even if the Panthers take a step forward this year, Brooks will start the year recovering from a torn-ACL and has to earn starting reps from Chuba Hubbard. His second-half could be OROY worthy, but his season-long stats may not be enough to challenge the top-end quarterbacks and receivers.
Odunze, Thomas Jr., and Worthy all fit the bill as first-round wide receivers who will produce, but face tough competition to emerge as top targets in their offense. Odunze enters as the likely third option behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, limiting his upside. Even if Odunze dominates right away, it is more likely that his quarterback Caleb Williams would benefit in the OROY race. Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Worthy both have veterans above them on the depth chart, but have outside chances of becoming the best receiver on their teams. Worthy needs to get off to a hot start while Marquise Brown is injured to build trust with Patrick Mahomes, but his record-breaking speed paired with Mahomes’s arm talent could be a lethal combination. Thomas Jr. was one of the most productive players in college football last year, even with Malik Nabers as his teammate, and could carve out a huge role as a deep threat and red zone threat. He could challenge as the touchdown leader among rookie wideouts.
Tier 5: So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Michael Penix Jr., Trey Benson, Blake Corum, Spencer Rattler
These four players likely need outside circ*mstances to occur to see major playing time in 2024, but have the potential to be stars. Michael Penix Jr. is backing up Kirk Cousins, who is coming off an Achilles injury, in a potential breakout Atlanta offense. If Cousins goes down early, Penix Jr. could have the best statistics among rookie signal callers in Zac Robinson’s offense. Spencer Rattler has far less draft pedigree, but flashed elite talent at times in college and has reportedly impressed the Saints in training camp. Derek Carr has not necessarily been a standout in New Orleans. If Rattler sees the field, he will have plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers throwing to Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara.
Trey Benson was one of the top running backs in the draft class, and landed in a great offensive situation in Arizona, however his playing time this year could be limited. James Conner is still a three-down back, and will fight hard to stay on the field. If Conner is injured or regresses heavily in his age-29 season, Benson has the talent to be an explosive, workhorse back for the Cardinals. Blake Corum had an accomplished career at Michigan, logging 3737 yards and 58 touchdowns on the ground in four years (three as a starter). Kyren Williams was one of the league’s most productive players last year, and was constantly on the field in Los Angeles. Sean McVay has not been afraid to shake up his run game over the past five years. If Williams is injured or simply loses favor, Corum could see heavy volume, especially in the red zone.
