How Will Every NFL Offense Perform in 2024? (2024)

At the end of the 2023 season, we saw familiar teams such as the San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, and Buffalo Bills ranked among the top offenses in the NFL. We also got some surprisingly good offenses, such as the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams.

This has been true in the NFL for a while now: Build a great offense, and you’ll have a chance to compete for a Super Bowl, even if your defense is mediocre.

So which offenses are good enough to give their teams a chance at the Lombardi Trophy this season, and which will make their fan bases want to pull their hair out? These are my preseason projections of how each offense will perform, ranked no. 1 to 32.

Statistics from this article are from TruMedia or Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.

1. Green Bay Packers

Surprise! OK, let me explain. Matt LaFleur has been the Packers’ head coach for five seasons. Here’s where the offense has ranked in efficiency each of those years.

For a while, LaFleur’s credentials as an offensive schemer got docked because everyone assumed Aaron Rodgers was the reason behind the Packers’ success. Then we started to realize that coaching Rodgers in the quarterback’s age-36-39 seasons might not have been that easy. With Rodgers gone last season, we saw LaFleur develop Jordan Love and a bunch of young skill-position players. LaFleur hasn’t won a Super Bowl yet, but he continues to turn in impressive coaching performances season after season.

The reasons to be bullish on this specific Packers offense are obvious. Love looks like he’s special. The critics will say he was good for only half a season in 2023, but if we include every game, including the playoffs, Love ranked third in expected points added per pass play. There’s always some risk with a small sample, but even if Love is the exact same player this season, that’s still really, really good.

The Packers are bringing back almost their entire offense (only guard Jon Runyan and running back Aaron Jones left in free agency). And they have a bunch of young players who should theoretically be getting better:

The reasons to tell me to settle down? Progress in the NFL is not linear. Love could experience some growing pains and take a step back before eventually taking more steps forward. And the same can be said for all of those young players listed above. Another factor to keep an eye on is the Packers’ turnover luck. They had the fourth-lowest EPA lost to giveaways last year, and that will be hard to sustain.

But overall, I’m smitten. I believe in the coach-quarterback combination. I am buying the upside of the supporting cast. And I trust that the offensive line will be good enough. The Packers have all the ingredients needed for an elite offense.

2. Houston Texans

The #TeamContent part of me really wants to push back on the Texans hype. Settle down, everyone. Can we see C.J. Stroud do it for more than one season, please? Stefon Diggs isn’t the same guy we saw three years ago. Do what you want, but I’m not crowning these guys just yet.

Sorry, I can’t zag. There are too many factors pointing to an offensive explosion here. One, Stroud turned in one of the best rookie quarterback seasons of all time in 2023, but what’s really impressive is that he did so under adverse circ*mstances. The Texans set a record (!) with their number of offensive line injuries last season. No five-man offensive line combination for the Texans played more than 24.8 percent of the snaps. The Texans have good players on their offensive line. If they can just get league-average injury luck up front, that will give the offense a massive boost.

Two, I love the pass-catching group. Nico Collins is a star. He finished last season with 1,297 receiving yards, which ranked eighth among wide receivers. Among wide receivers who ran at least 200 routes, only Tyreek Hill produced a higher yards-per-route-run average than Collins. The guy will be a monster this season. Meanwhile, Diggs is just being asked to be a WR2. In a down year in Buffalo last season, he still had 1,183 yards. Even if that bumps down to 800 yards or so, guess what! That’s excellent production for a no. 2 receiving option. And, of course, don’t sleep on Tank Dell, who had 709 yards in 11 games as a rookie before suffering a season-ending leg injury.

Quarterback? Check. Offensive line? Check. Pass catchers? Check. So what makes me nervous? Two things. One, the Texans had tremendous turnover luck last season. Only the Seahawks lost less EPA on giveaways than Houston did. That’s unlikely to repeat. And two—this one might surprise you—is the play-calling. By one metric, the Texans ran the ball at the seventh-highest rate on early downs last season. If you’re an efficient rushing team, fine. No issue with pounding the rock. The problem? Houston ranked 30th in rushing efficiency. Running the ball at a high rate when you stink at running the ball is one of the worst things an offense can do.

But I’m willing to give second-year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik the benefit of the doubt here. He had a rookie quarterback, and he was dealing with offensive line injuries all season. In other words, there were valid reasons to play it a little conservative. With the upside of this passing game, Stroud in his second season, and an improved offensive line, I expect the Texans to air it out more. I’m all in on this offense.

3. San Francisco 49ers

There’s a case for bumping them up in these preseason projections (just look at what the 49ers did last season, when they were the no. 1 offense by most metrics) and a case for bumping them down (have we ever seen clearer signs of a Super Bowl hangover?). As of this writing, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams are still not practicing because they’re unhappy with their contracts, but both guys are still on the roster. Earlier this month, the 49ers had to cancel a joint practice against the Saints because they had 23 players unavailable to participate.

Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

On the other hand, if those injured players get healthy, and if the Aiyuk and Williams situations get resolved, the offense should once again be a juggernaut. The 49ers had the best offense in the NFL last season, and it wasn’t even close. The difference in DVOA between them and the no. 2 Dolphins was the same as the difference between the Dolphins and the no. 8 Chiefs. The 49ers produced the highest regular-season success rate of any offense in the past 10 years. Again: juggernaut!

Assuming Aiyuk isn’t traded, the 49ers will be essentially bringing back the same offensive personnel, and they used a first-round pick on wide receiver Ricky Pearsall in April. So why wouldn’t they be just as good in 2024? One, their depth is likely to be tested way more than it was last season, when the 49ers had the second-best injury luck of any offense. Two, last season, the 49ers produced a historically good offense, and that level of performance will be hard to replicate. Quarterback Brock Purdy averaged 9.6 yards per attempt; only Kurt Warner in 2000 produced a higher number this century. And running back Christian McCaffrey has had 798 touches the past two seasons—108 more than any other back. Again, it’s fair to ask: Can they really do that again?

Bottom line: Barring horrible injury luck, this will be one of the best offenses in the NFL. It just might not be quite as good as last year’s.

4. Detroit Lions

I’m struggling to find legit reasons why this group won’t be just as good as it was last season, when Detroit finished fifth in offensive efficiency. There was nothing fluky about that showing. The Lions didn’t get extraordinary injury luck or turnover luck. And they are pretty much running it back in 2024. They lost guard Jonah Jackson and complementary wide receiver Josh Reynolds in free agency, but other than that, the entire offense returns, including standout coordinator Ben Johnson, who spurned advances for head-coaching vacancies, notably in Washington.

We know what we’re getting with this Lions group. The offensive line should be excellent. It’ll run the ball well. It’ll lean on play-action. And it’ll attack the middle of the field in the passing game. Jared Goff’s supporting cast is filled with young players—running back Jahmyr Gibbs (22), tight end Sam LaPorta (23), and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (turning 25 in October)—who should theoretically be ascending.

When Goff is protected—and, again, he should be with this offensive line—he can operate a high-level offense. We’ve seen that over and over again in his career. I like Detroit’s chances of once again producing a top-five offense.

5. Miami Dolphins

I may have them ranked high, but I don’t trust them. If you look at the overall numbers, there should be no doubting Mike McDaniel and this Dolphins offense. After finishing sixth in offensive efficiency two years ago, the Dolphins bumped all the way up to second last season, behind only the 49ers. McDaniel has been an innovator when it comes to using motion effectively. He’s built an explosive run game even though his teams lack talent on the offensive line. He’s built a passing game that attacks the middle of the field and plays to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s strengths. And he knows what he wants from his skill players: speed, speed, and more speed.

Yet I can’t shake the idea that the numbers reflect a team that is more than capable of beating up on bad teams but isn’t a serious competitor against stronger competition. If we look at how every offense performed last season against only playoff teams, the Dolphins ranked 23rd in EPA per drive and 15th in success rate. It felt like that too when you watched, didn’t it?

That will shape how I view the Dolphins until they prove me wrong. A September game against a mediocre opponent? They’ll go off. A December game against a playoff team? The offense probably won’t look the same. And while McDaniel has shown previously that he can scheme around shortcomings on the offensive line, this group up front is one of the least talented in the entire league. Having said all that, this exercise is all about projecting where teams will rank at the end of the season. McDaniel’s too good and the offense is too talented for me to have them outside of the top five.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

They’ve had some offensive line injuries this summer that scare me, but I’m still bullish on the Bengals offense. A reminder that in 2022, this group finished fourth in offensive efficiency. Last season, with an injured Joe Burrow and backup quarterback Jake Browning starting seven games, they still finished 11th.

Burrow is returning from a serious wrist injury, and if you tell me you’re fading the Bengals because of that, I can’t really say anything to convince you not to. But we’ve seen encouraging signs, like the fact that Burrow has been practicing consistently and even played in the Bengals’ first preseason game. I’ll choose to believe, based on what we know at this moment in time, that Burrow will be close to his normal self physically.

Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

And I really like the group around him. The Bengals used a first-round pick on offensive tackle Amarius Mims. By all accounts, Mims was having a great camp before suffering a pec injury, and he’s still expected to return sometime in September. If Mims plays well as a rookie, this could be the best offensive line that Burrow has ever played behind. And if it’s not that great, well, Burrow has shown in the past that he can still perform well under tough circ*mstances. Cincinnati held on to wide receiver Tee Higgins, and unless wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is willing to miss game checks (he’s currently holding in for a new contract), he’ll be on the field and primed to pile up more than 1,200 yards once again.

What I like about the Bengals is that they’ve had to learn how to play different styles over the years. In 2021, it was all about the explosive passing game. Defenses focused on limiting those big plays, so Cincinnati moved to a more methodical, balanced approach in 2022. The Bengals have already had to adapt and evolve and find answers. And the core players—Burrow, Chase, Higgins—have been through battles together. The pieces are in place for this to be their best year yet.

7. Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs fans, I know this ranking will make you mad, but let me state my case. The Chiefs had a great team last season. They did not have a great offense last season—it was merely very good.

The Chiefs get graded on a different curve because they have Patrick Mahomes—the best player in the NFL, and maybe the greatest quarterback of all time. A lot of teams would do cartwheels if they ranked eighth in offensive efficiency. But for the Chiefs, it was easily their worst mark under Mahomes. In fact, they had not finished lower than third in the previous five seasons with Mahomes as their starter.

So why the slight drop-off last season? It had nothing to do with Mahomes. He’s the same guy he’s always been. It had everything to do with his unreliable supporting cast. Chiefs pass catchers had 34 drops in the regular season—third most in the NFL. Players not named Mahomes were charged with 15 fumbles. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor was charged with 19 penalties in the regular season. If you threw any other quarterback into that situation, there’s no way the Chiefs would be a top-10 offense.

So where does that leave us for 2024? The Chiefs made two additions at wide receiver: veteran free agent Marquise Brown and first-round pick Xavier Worthy. Brown is coming off of a 574-yard season with the Cardinals and has missed eight games the past two seasons. He suffered a shoulder injury in the Chiefs’ first preseason game and is currently sidelined. Worthy has generated a lot of buzz after running a 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the combine, but there’s always a degree of risk counting on rookie pass catchers—especially a guy like Worthy, who weighs just 165 pounds. In the last 10 seasons, 40 wide receivers have been taken in the first round. Their average production as rookies: 50.1 catches for 670.5 yards. The Chiefs still have tight end Travis Kelce, but he is entering his age-35 season. They still have wide receiver Rashee Rice, but he could be facing a suspension.

Still, when I add it all up, I see a group that should perform better than last season’s even if there are still a lot of questions around Mahomes.

8. Philadelphia Eagles

Head coach Nick Sirianni has spoken in the past about how a wise man avoids all extremes. Well, the Eagles didn’t exactly live by that truism last season. According to the FTN Football Almanac, they were 32nd in motion usage. They were in shotgun or pistol a league-high 94 percent of the time. And no team targeted the middle of the field less (just 11 percent of their pass attempts).

Sirianni was, shall we say, strongly encouraged to hand the keys over to a new offensive coordinator this offseason, and the organization brought in former Cowboys and Chargers play caller Kellen Moore. Moore will be tasked with modernizing a scheme that was boring, vanilla, and predictable last season.

Jalen Hurts has more talent around him than any other Eagles quarterback during my lifetime. The offense has two legit wide receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Dallas Goedert is an above-average all-around tight end. And general manager Howie Roseman was aggressive in free agency, signing running back Saquon Barkley. Up front, the Eagles lost center Jason Kelce to retirement, and there’s no downplaying the impact that could have. Still, on paper, this should be an above-average offensive line.

For as bad as things got by the end of last season, the Eagles still finished 10th in offensive efficiency. The Eagles are a high-variance team, but with competent coaching and this much talent, I couldn’t put them any lower.

9. Buffalo Bills

The one-liner: As long as Josh Allen is healthy and in his prime, this Bills offense will be good.

The Bills have produced a top-10 offense for four straight seasons, and it’s been top five in three of those seasons. It was a bumpy ride last year, but the Bills still finished third in offensive efficiency. After trading Diggs and letting Gabe Davis walk in free agency, this feels like a transition year. But that doesn’t mean the Bills will take a giant step back.

Consider this: In their divisional-round loss to the Chiefs, the Bills went up and down the field and produced the seventh-highest success rate in a single game for any offense all season. Diggs had just three catches for 21 yards in that game. My point? Diggs had a great run with the Bills, and they won’t be better without him, but I think there’s still a formula that can work here.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid is coming off of a promising rookie season. Khalil Shakir is a nice complementary wide receiver. James Cook has shown he can make plays as a pass catcher out of the backfield. And maybe the Bills will get something out of rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman. I’m not telling you it’s the best skill-position group in the NFL or even that it’s massively underrated. I’m just telling you that the situation is workable when Allen is the quarterback and you have a good offensive line (which they do).

10. Baltimore Ravens

Why you should be bullish about the Ravens: They have the reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Jackson has had three NFL seasons in which he’s started at least 15 games. He has won MVP in two of those seasons, and the Ravens have finished first, fourth, and 11th in offensive DVOA those years. In other words, the floor for an offense led by Jackson is high. The run game will be great, and even when the passing game has had shortcomings (because of an unimaginative scheme, below-average pass catchers, etc.), Jackson has made enough plays to figure it out. This will be his second year in Todd Monken’s offense, and the Jackson–Derrick Henry combination will be a blast to watch.

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

So why don’t I have them ranked higher? This offensive line could be a mess. O-line guru Brandon Thorn has the Ravens’ line ranked 28th going into the season. Baltimore lost three starters from last season, and its offensive line coach is away from the team while he deals with an acute illness. It kept left tackle Ronnie Stanley, but he’s played in a total of just 31 games the past four seasons. Tyler Linderbaum is one of the NFL’s best centers, but he’s been dealing with an injury during training camp. The Ravens have taken a bunch of dart throws to improve their offensive line, and if a couple of those players hit, they could be totally fine. But if not, this offense could be more limited than it was a season ago.

11. Los Angeles Rams

This was probably the team I struggled with the most when putting together the rankings. Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent last season. The offensive line held up well. Sean McVay reinvented his scheme. Puka Nacua emerged as a star. And the Rams ranked seventh in offensive efficiency. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where they significantly outperform this spot.

The reason I’m bumping the Rams down slightly is because they caught a couple of breaks last season that they might not get again this year. The biggest is injury luck. They had the fourth-healthiest offense in the NFL in 2023. Chances are their depth will get tested more this season, and depth is a big question mark for this group. They got some turnover luck last season too. The Rams lost just five fumbles on offense all season. Only the Bengals lost fewer.

Wide receiver Cooper Kupp has played in a total of 21 games in the past two seasons. and there will always be some fragility with a quarterback like Stafford, who is entering his age-36 season. They absolutely have enough upside to be a top-five offense. But some of those random factors that fluctuate year to year might not go the Rams’ way in 2024.

12. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys represent a battle between the analytical part of my brain and the general vibes of an underwhelming, nonsensical offseason. History tells us that if quarterback Dak Prescott is healthy, the Cowboys will most likely have a top-10 offense. They finished ninth in offensive efficiency last season. But there are some regression factors that are working against the Cowboys. They had the fifth-best injury luck of any offense last season and the eighth-best turnover luck when we look at EPA lost to giveaways.

From a personnel standpoint, the Cowboys lost a couple of offensive linemen in free agency and are counting on rookies to replace them. The run game looks uninspiring. And aside from wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (who is incredible), the pass-catching group is unimpressive. It’s also hard to project how Prescott, Lamb, and Mike McCarthy will respond to their uncertain contract situations. Overall, this looks like a high-floor, low-ceiling group.

13. Chicago Bears

The Caleb Williams hype has reached epic levels after a couple of preseason performances. He’ll have a C.J. Stroud–like season as a rookie and then later compete with Patrick Mahomes as the baddest quarterback on the planet. So are we buying? Or does everyone need to settle down?

On the one hand, I think most are underselling what an outlier Stroud was last season. Most years, there won’t be a rookie quarterback that impressive. On the other hand, I think it’s fair to point out that Williams is entering the league in a better situation than most no. 1 picks do. The wide receiver trio of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze is just about as good as you can give a rookie quarterback. Meanwhile, Williams’s offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, directed units in Seattle that ranked seventh, 12th, and 13th in efficiency.

Now let’s get to the analytical part of my brain. Over the past 10 seasons, 36 rookie quarterbacks have had at least 200 dropbacks. On average, they’ve performed like the 26th-best starter in the NFL (EPA per pass play). Four out of 36 (11 percent) have performed like a top-10 quarterback; seven out of 36 (19.4 percent) have performed like an above-average starter. In other words, the most likely outcome here is that Williams will go through some growing pains this season. He’s more likely to perform like a below-average starter than to replicate what Stroud did a year ago. The other issue here is the Bears’ offensive line, which profiles as a below-average group.

I usually don’t like to bet on the exception, but I think Williams has a chance to be special. Sure, he can make the “wow” throws, but he can also play point guard and deliver strike after strike in the short and intermediate parts of the field. I’m buying the Bears offense as an above-average group with big upside.

14. Jacksonville Jaguars

The more time I spend looking at the Jaguars, the more I start to talk myself into the idea that they’ll have a rebound season. In 2022, this was a top-10 offense. Last year, it dropped down to 18th. So is this a group that is likely to continue to slide? Or are its struggles from last season easily explained? I tend to think it’s the latter.

The most obvious reason for the Jaguars’ horrible finish in 2023? Trevor Lawrence was dealing with four different injuries. If I stopped there, and we assumed that Lawrence would be healthier in 2024, that would be reason enough to expect at least a slight bounce back. But there’s more. No quarterback lost more EPA to drops than Lawrence last season.

Meanwhile, only four offenses lost more EPA to turnovers than the Jaguars. They lost 16 fumbles on offense last season; only the Jets lost more.

I’m not trying to make a bunch of excuses for the Jags. It’s less than ideal that they still don’t know who will call plays during the regular season. They’ve dumped a lot of resources into a group of pass catchers that looks fine but unspectacular. Their offensive line projects to be mediocre. And Lawrence, who received a five-year, $275 million contract extension this offseason, simply needs to play better. But if he has a healthier season and they get better luck with drops and turnovers, I can see a scenario where this group looks more like the 2022 version than the 2023 version.

15. Seattle Seahawks

Back when I covered the Seahawks in 2015 and 2016, the constant question about the roster was: Can this offensive line be good enough? Here we are in 2024, and the question is the same. If I were convinced that the offensive line could give Seattle even average play, I’d be tempted to bump the Seahawks into the top 10.

Last year, the offensive line wasn’t very good, and the Seahawks still finished 12th in offensive efficiency. Geno Smith finished eighth among starting quarterbacks in dropback success rate. Early-down performance tends to be more stable year to year than late-down performance, and on first and second downs, Smith finished third in success rate.

There’s a lot to like here. Smith is a veteran quarterback who knows what he’s looking at, can deliver the ball accurately from the pocket, and isn’t afraid to attempt high-degree-of-difficulty throws. The pass-catching group of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the better trios in the NFL. Running back Kenneth Walker III is an explosive play waiting to happen, and Zach Charbonnet is a nice complementary piece. And new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is coming off of an impressive campaign at the University of Washington.

In addition to the offensive line questions, my other concern with the Seahawks is turnover regression. They had the lowest EPA on turnovers of any offense in the NFL in 2023. That’s unlikely to repeat. Overall, I see the upside, but I just can’t get over the potential limitations of the group up front.

16. New York Jets

Here’s the deal: The Jets offense doesn’t need to be elite. It needs to be competent. And while there is definitely bust potential, I think the most likely outcome is that the Jets offense will finish right in this middle range.

Aaron Rodgers has started 10-plus games 13 times in his career. In those 13 seasons, his offenses have never finished worse than 12th in offensive efficiency. Rodgers turned 40 last December, and he’s coming off of an Achilles injury. But even if he plays the worst season he’s ever played, the offense still has a chance.

His protection should be better. The team added offensive tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses in the offseason and drafted tackle Olu Fashanu in the first round. On paper, this is a group that can withstand an injury and still be OK. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall have the upside to be elite players at their respective positions. They’ve just been stuck in a horrible situation playing with Zach Wilson the past couple of years.

Regression is working in the Jets’ favor. Everything seemingly went wrong last season. Their offense had the second-worst injury luck in the NFL, and only five teams lost more EPA to giveaways. Rodgers can save them there. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history in terms of taking care of the ball.

Nathaniel Hackett adds very little as the offensive coordinator, and I generally don’t like betting on quarterbacks at this age. Plus there’s always the chance that the Jets will do Jets things. But setting those things aside, I think there’s enough here for competency.

17. Arizona Cardinals

This offense has some sleeper potential. Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing showed that he could do more with less last season, scheming up some fun stuff when Kyler Murray was sidelined for the first nine games. The Cardinals’ performance after Murray returned would’ve extrapolated to the 13th-best offense (DVOA) over the course of an entire season.

Since entering the league as the no. 1 pick in 2019, Murray has shown flashes of brilliance, but he hasn’t quite put it all together for an entire season. Murray has never quarterbacked an offense that has finished better than 12th in efficiency. Even last year, the passing game was mostly pedestrian. Murray ranked 19th in EPA per pass play and 21st in success rate.

Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

I believe in the upside of the Cardinals’ run game in 2024, and rookie first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. and returning tight end Trey McBride are exciting pass-catching options, but this offensive line worries me quite a bit. This offense would need a bunch of things to go right just to be average.

Overall, I think we’ll get a fun offense, but I think it’s probably a year away from potentially being a very good offense.

18. Indianapolis Colts

A worthwhile exercise to think about: How good does Anthony Richardson need to be to match Gardner Minshew’s level of play from 2023, when the Colts ranked 13th in offensive efficiency? Minshew, who started 13 games, ranked 20th in EPA per pass play and 26th in success rate. On paper, those seem like attainable marks in year two for Richardson. But the truth is Richardson might be the hardest player in the NFL to project. He had just 98 dropbacks as a rookie. He started four games but finished only one before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. You could tell me he’ll be an MVP candidate and emerge as the league’s next great dual-threat quarterback. Or you could tell me he’ll struggle with accuracy and injuries and won’t provide the Colts with much of an upgrade from what they had in Minshew. Such a wide range of outcomes is in play.

Going into last season, I thought this Colts offensive line would be bad, but it ended up being one of the better groups in the NFL. The pass-catching group of Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell is solid but unspectacular. Where I think the Colts can really be dynamic is with their run game. Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, combined with a good offensive line and a creative play caller in Shane Steichen, have the potential for a top-five rushing attack.

There’s just so much variance here. The highs will be higher with Richardson than they were with Minshew, but he’s still a very inexperienced player. I think the run game raises the floor of this offense, and its ceiling is considerably higher than the other offenses in this range.

19. Los Angeles Chargers

My inclination is to give a Jim Harbaugh–coached offense the benefit of the doubt, but Charger-y things have already taken their toll this summer. Most notably, quarterback Justin Herbert is dealing with an injury to the plantar fascia in his right foot. While he’s expected to be ready for Week 1, his mobility could be limited.

Meanwhile, the wide receiver group looks like one of the worst in the NFL. The offensive line has a chance to be solid but is still unproven. And Greg Roman, who was getting clowned a couple of years ago for his vanilla passing game in Baltimore, is in charge of making it all work.

It’s hard to make a convincing argument that this offense has a high ceiling, but assuming Herbert’s on the field, I think the floor is pretty high. Last season was mostly a disaster. Only six teams had worse injury luck on offense, and Easton Stick started four games at quarterback. Yet the Chargers still finished 16th in offensive efficiency. This roster needs another offseason before we start taking it seriously, but I don’t think expecting it to be close to mediocre is asking too much.

20. Atlanta Falcons

The following two things can be true:

1. People are overrating the impact that Kirk Cousins will have on the Falcons offense.
2. Cousins will be a massive upgrade from what Atlanta had last year.

Cousins spent five seasons as the Vikings’ full-time starter from 2018 to 2022 before an injury cut his season short last year. The best ranking for those offenses was ninth. The worst ranking was 20th. That range is a good place to start when considering what we might see from this Atlanta team.

So is Cousins set up for success better or worse in Atlanta than he was in Minnesota? Running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Drake London are nice pieces. But Cousins doesn’t have anyone like Justin Jefferson or Stefon Diggs to get him a bucket in a big spot. He’s also entering his age-36 season and coming off of an Achilles injury.

On paper, the offensive line in front of Cousins looks solid. But the Falcons had the best injury luck of any offense last season. They were one of four teams to have a single offensive line combination play at least 75 percent of the snaps. If we assume league-average injury luck, the Falcons’ depth will get tested way more than it did last season.

Add it all up, and I see a group that’s likely to be mostly mediocre.

21. Pittsburgh Steelers

You look at the Steelers quarterback situation and probably think: Well, Russell Wilson or Justin Fields has to at least be better than Kenny Pickett, right?

The problem? That might not necessarily be true. Among 41 quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks the last two seasons, here’s where each of them ranked in terms of dropback success rate and EPA per pass play:

Their performances have been right around the same range statistically. Fields is capable of more explosive plays than the other two. Pickett had the highest success rate. And Wilson was best in terms of EPA per pass play.

Having said that, there is some reason for optimism here. The most fun outcome would be Fields as a true dual-threat quarterback for new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, with good running backs and what should be a pretty good offensive line. It might not work, but at least it would provide some entertainment value. The Steelers actually ended up finishing 15th in offensive efficiency last year, which probably would surprise a lot of people. It’s easy to forget now, given how poorly his Falcons tenure went, but Smith’s offenses in Tennessee finished fifth and sixth in efficiency with Ryan Tannehill. He’s shown that he can do more with less.

There is also a reasonable case for this offense to be terrible. In 2023, it had the seventh-best injury luck and the fifth-best turnover luck of any offense—two factors that could regress this season. And this passing game could be among the league’s worst. The Steelers are thin at wide receiver after George Pickens, and while I have no issue with the team taking fliers on budget-friendly quarterbacks such as Wilson and Fields, both guys were available for a reason. Where do I land on the Steelers? I think the run game could be fun, but this is not a passing game I can get behind, and that will severely limit the Steelers’ ceiling.

22. Cleveland Browns

Who wants to hear the truth about just how bad Deshaun Watson has been as the Browns quarterback? Anyone? Over the past two seasons, among 41 quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks, Watson ranks 39th in EPA per pass play—ahead of only Zach Wilson and Bryce Young. And he ranks 35th in success rate—sandwiched between Joe Flacco and Sam Howell. There is a narrative that Watson was coming on before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury last November, but according to the FTN Almanac, he produced just one game in 2023 with a positive DVOA (meaning above league average). Watson was last a good quarterback in 2020, and he has played in a total of 12 games the past three seasons. There is no reason to give him the benefit of the doubt.

As for the Browns offense as a whole, it’s reasonable to expect that it’ll be better than it was last year, when it started five different quarterbacks and finished 28th in efficiency. Cleveland had the fourth-worst injury luck for any offense, and no offense lost more EPA on turnovers.

Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and David Njoku offer a nice pass-catching group, and head coach and play caller Kevin Stefanski has a good track record of producing solid offenses. But the Browns lost legendary O-line coach Bill Callahan to the Titans in the offseason, and they’ve been dealing with a number of injuries this summer. It’d be no surprise to see that group take a step back. Until I see Watson operate this offense better, I can’t buy into a high ceiling for the Browns.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everything about the Bucs screams regression to me. As I mentioned in the Seahawks section, early-down performance tends to be more stable year over year than late-down performance. The Bucs had the highest DVOA of any offense last year on third down, but they had the fourth-worst DVOA on first and second downs. That means then–offensive coordinator Dave Canales was dialing up some good stuff in high-leverage spots, and Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans were effectively playing hero ball. It was a lot of fun in 2023 but also something that might not be sustainable in 2024, especially after Canales left for Carolina.

On paper, the Bucs should field a solid offensive line, and Evans and Chris Godwin headline a solid group of pass catchers. I expect this offense to have some weeks in which it puts up big numbers, but the run game stank last year, and the move from Canales to new offensive coordinator Liam Coen feels like a downgrade. The Bucs finished 20th in offensive efficiency last year, and I don’t think they’ll be quite as good this season.

24. New Orleans Saints

Nothing makes me want to take a nap more than writing about the Saints offense. Boring. Irrelevant. There are many similar adjectives that apply to the Saints here. Derek Carr is 33 years old. At this point, we know what we’re getting with him. If the supporting cast is strong, he can operate the offense at a competent level. If it’s not, things can get ugly fast.

Last year, the Saints finished 17th in offensive efficiency. They got league-average injury luck but had the sixth-best turnover luck in terms of EPA lost on giveaways. New Orleans hired Klint Kubiak to replace Pete Carmichael as offensive coordinator. Maybe Kubiak, who most recently was on Kyle Shanahan’s staff in San Francisco, will be good, but there’s no reason to think he’ll provide some kind of significant upgrade. From a personnel standpoint, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are nice wide receivers, but the Saints’ pass-catching group is thin. Alvin Kamara is entering his eighth season and coming off a year in which he produced a career-low 1,160 yards from scrimmage.

But the biggest reason I’ve got the Saints ranked this low is the state of their offensive line. They are counting on rookie Taliese Fuaga to come in and immediately be a good left tackle and for Trevor Penning, who has been a massive disappointment, to be a competent right tackle. A setup where Carr plays with shaky tackles and an unproven play caller is one that I’ll gladly fade every time.

25. Denver Broncos

There’s a case that the Broncos offense won’t be quite as bad as everyone thinks it will be, and it starts with what we saw last season. Russell Wilson looked mostly terrible, yet Sean Payton adjusted his scheme and play calling, and the offense finished 19th in efficiency. That’s mediocre but not terrible! Wilson finished the season 23rd in EPA per pass play and 22nd in success rate. If Bo Nix performs like an average rookie quarterback, it would be only a little bit worse than what Wilson gave the Broncos last season.

Denver’s offensive line isn’t great, but it’s solid; it’s not a unit that will be the reason for success or failure most weeks. The pass-catching group is below average, but it has veterans in Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick, along with younger guys like Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin, who have theoretical upside.

And perhaps most importantly, the Broncos have Payton. It’s true that Payton loves to be talked about as one of the great offensive minds of the last 25 years. But it’s also true that Payton actually is one of the great offensive minds of the last 25 years. His reputation is on the line here, and we’re talking about a man who has a very healthy ego. He handpicked Nix at no. 12 while everyone laughed at him. It’s entirely possible that the laughter was warranted and that Nix is terrible. But I just have a hard time seeing a Payton-coached offense being a complete disaster, so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt with this ranking.

Photo by Tyler Schank/Getty Images

26. Minnesota Vikings

Look out—the Sam Darnold truthers are back, baby! Let me be clear. I have nothing against Darnold. It would be a fun story if he salvaged his career and played well for the Vikings. But I think many are dramatically overrating the likelihood of that happening.

Since 2019, 39 quarterbacks have had at least 1,000 dropbacks. Among that group, Darnold ranks 37th in EPA per pass play and 36th in success rate. You can make the argument that Darnold was in a terrible situation with the Jets. I agree! But even if we look at just the last three seasons, there have been 40 quarterbacks with at least 600 dropbacks. Among that group, Darnold ranks 31st in EPA per pass play and 30th in success rate. I understand that the circ*mstances around Darnold have been less than ideal, but he has thrown over 1,800 passes in the NFL, and we have not seen an extended stretch where he has looked even close to average. He has also never started more than 13 games in a season.

The situation here for Darnold is not bad. Kevin O’Connell is a smart coach. The Vikings have good offensive tackles. And Justin Jefferson will elevate the play of any quarterback he’s working with. It’s perfectly reasonable to expect that, if nothing else, this will be the best version of Darnold we’ve seen. But two seasons ago, the Vikings got Kirk Cousins for all 17 games, and Jefferson had 1,809 receiving yards. The offense still finished 20th in efficiency.

Players and teams surprise us every year. That’s why we watch. Maybe Darnold will thrive in this situation, put it all together, and lead the Vikings to the playoffs. But I do these rankings based on most likely outcomes, and the most likely outcome is that Darnold won’t look all that different from the guy we’ve seen in the past and the Vikings offense will struggle.

27. New York Giants

If you watched the offseason Hard Knocks, you know that the Giants desperately wanted to find a young quarterback to replace Daniel Jones, who is returning from an ACL injury. They weren’t able to do so, and now Jones is throwing embarrassing preseason picks, the offensive line looks like a disaster, and the Giants continue to travel down a road to nowhere.

So how about a little (and may I stress little) dose of optimism? If we take the last two seasons combined and isolate the snaps where Jones has been on the field, the Giants have performed like the 18th-best offense in the NFL—both in terms of offensive success rate and EPA per play. Not horrible! The Giants are unlikely to be as good as they were in 2022, when they ranked 16th in offensive efficiency. But they’re also unlikely to be as bad as they were last season, when Tommy Cutlets (you didn’t forget about him, did you??) started six games and they finished ranked 30th.

Over the last two seasons under head coach Brian Daboll, Jones ranks 17th in success rate. I’m not telling you the Giants should have given him a big contract (they shouldn’t have), but that ranking probably surprises a lot of people and suggests there’s competency in there somewhere. Can Daboll get it out of Jones in 2024?

The Giants signed some veterans on the offensive line in the offseason, but that group has had an uninspiring summer and projects to be a below-average unit. Wide receiver Malik Nabers should add an explosive element that has been sorely missing from the offense, but it’s always risky to expect too much from a rookie. At running back, Devin Singletary is an obvious downgrade from Saquon Barkley.

I see a group that has a sliver of a chance to be competent, but it will need some injury luck up front and an immediate impact from Nabers.

28. Carolina Panthers

I’m concerned about Bryce Young, but I’m not giving up on him completely after just one year. There’s no sugarcoating just how bad his rookie season was. In the last 10 years, there have been 36 quarterbacks who have had at least 200 dropbacks as rookies. Among that sample, Young’s 2023 season ranked 33rd in EPA per pass play and 32nd in success rate.

You know all the caveats here. Young had bad coaching, a horrendous group of pass catchers, and a shaky offensive line. The circ*mstances around him were terrible. The question now is: How much better are the pieces around him in 2024? New head coach Dave Canales has gotten a lot of pop as an offensive mind, but as mentioned above in the Bucs section, there is some data that suggests Tampa’s offensive performance last season wasn’t as impressive as it might have seemed. Carolina invested heavily in its interior offensive line this offseason, but left tackle still looks like a big question. I liked the trade with Pittsburgh for wide receiver Diontae Johnson, and maybe first-round pick Xavier Legette will make an immediate impact, but the pass-catching group is still underwhelming.

It’s fair to expect the pieces around Young to be much better than last season, but it’s a reach to say that the circ*mstances are actually good. I can see a scenario where this group goes from disastrous to below average, but I am not bold enough to predict that as the most likely outcome.

29. Tennessee Titans

The Titans made moves this offseason to give second-year quarterback Will Levis a chance. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd join a wide receiver group that is headlined by veteran DeAndre Hopkins. They used a first-round pick on offensive tackle JC Latham and signed center Lloyd Cushenberry in free agency. Tennessee’s biggest addition might have been offensive line coach Bill Callahan, who has a proven track record of being able to do more with less.

Levis had some fun highlights as a rookie, but the key for new head coach Brian Callahan will be getting Levis to cut down on his negative plays. Levis took sacks on 9.9 percent of his dropbacks last season, which ranked 29th out of 32 quarterbacks. Among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Levis ranked 37th out of 39 in turnover-worthy play percentage, as charted by Pro Football Focus.

I’m confident that we’ll see some big plays out of Levis, but I don’t know that we’ll see much game-to-game or even down-to-down consistency. The Titans’ offensive line is below average, and the right side, specifically, could be a major problem. I expect this to be a high-variance offense that shows flashes but also puts up a bunch of clunkers.

30. Las Vegas Raiders

After an uninspiring quarterback competition, head coach Antonio Pierce named Gardner Minshew the starter over Aidan O’Connell. Was that the right call? Here’s how they stacked up in 2023:

Considering how similar their performances were last season, you could argue that O’Connell would have been the better choice. He’s entering his second season, so at least there’s a chance for development and improvement. But instead, the Raiders are going with Minshew, and we know what we’re getting with him.

As for the group around the quarterback, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers offer a nice one-two punch at receiver. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers should be fun, and the Raiders could lean into 12 personnel when they pair Bowers with 2023 second-round pick Michael Mayer. But other than Bowers, the Raiders had all those pieces last season and still finished 27th in offensive efficiency.

They don’t have a proven running back on the roster after Josh Jacobs left in free agency, and the offensive line projects to be a below-average group. The Raiders’ depth is likely to be tested more than it was last season when they had the third-best injury luck of any offense. Luke Getsy takes over as offensive coordinator after he spent two seasons in the same role with the Bears. He’s yet to show he can scheme an offense up to outperform its talent.

It’s possible that Bowers will be this year’s version of Sam LaPorta or that the offensive line will be a pleasant surprise. But most likely, this offense won’t perform much differently than last year’s version.

31. Washington Commanders

As I mentioned above in the Bears section, on average, rookie quarterbacks perform like the 26th-ranked starter. That’s the baseline we should be working from with Jayden Daniels, who on Monday was officially named the Commanders’ starting quarterback. Then we can adjust accordingly, based on how much better or worse we think he’ll be than an average rookie.

I liked Daniels quite a bit as a prospect and think he has a bright future. But the moves the Commanders made around him in the offseason were uninspired. They very well could have the worst offensive line in the NFL. That’s a scary proposition when combined with a rookie quarterback who had a pressure/sack problem in college. Meanwhile, new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury produced mostly mediocre units during his time with the Arizona Cardinals, and even when his offenses had success, it was a lot of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins connecting on improvisational plays. Kingsbury has not shown that he can elevate a quarterback’s play or scheme around personnel weaknesses in the NFL.

The Daniels–Terry McLaurin connection should be fun, but beyond McLaurin, the Commanders have a thin group of pass catchers. If Daniels manages to thrive in this environment, the Commanders will know they have something really special.

32. New England Patriots

There are corners of the internet where you will find optimism about this Patriots offense. This is not one of those places. The only real case is that maybe Drake Maye will have a Stroud-ish rookie season. That’s possible. Rookie quarterbacks are nearly impossible to project. But most rookies are mediocre at best. And looking at the Patriots’ entire offensive situation, it’s hard to make an argument that Maye is set up for success—if he plays at all.

This offensive tackle situation might be the worst in the NFL, and the line as a whole projects to be a bottom-five unit. It’s not a group that you want a rookie quarterback to have to play behind, which is why Jacoby Brissett is expected to start Week 1.

At wide receiver, I liked Ja’Lynn Polk as a prospect, but you never know what you’re getting with a rookie. DeMario Douglas has some juice, and K.J. Osborn is a fine complementary piece. But there’s no one here who will elevate the quarterback’s play. Meanwhile, it’s unclear where new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt gives the offense an edge.

Brissett has been a competent starter in the past when the circ*mstances around him have been good, but the circ*mstances here are potentially the worst in the NFL.